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Does this make a hung parliament LESS likely?
Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord? The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night...
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So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?
Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37% Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36% Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27% UPDATED 0755 Clegg wins by three pollsters to two Clearly there will be...
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Brown-Cameron: What Lib Dem voters think
Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Brown is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 35% 59% Lib Dem voters only 29% 65% Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the...
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Can Marathon Man pull through in the end?
Or is it almost all over? To see more of Marf’s work check here.
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Has Clegg trumped Cameron’s ace?
SkyNews What does this do to “Vote Yellow get Brown”? In the eleven days since Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats emerged as a force at the first debate the blue team’s main line of attack has been “Vote...
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Did Gord and Nick go to the “wrong” universities?
Election Winning leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959...
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How will history judge this final act?
Telegraph The Telegraph has a story that I’m sure will be referred to time and time again when historians come to assess the Brown years. The report goes “…one of Brown’s final acts in the Downing...
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Mandy: Clegg wanted Brown’s scalp as price for coalition
But couldn’t we have guessed that anyway? Anybody watching ITV over the weekend could not have avoided the ads by the Times promoting their serialisation of Peter Mandelson’s new book. We were being...
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“Labour: F***ked, futile, and finished..”
SkyNews Will Mandy’s VAT revelation hurt his party? According to the SkyNews today’s extract in the Times from has this description of a general election planning meeting from last October. ” …Harriet...
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Is this just becoming a big distraction?
The Mandy serialisation – Day 3 On a day when the big political news could have been the parliamentary battles and votes on the budget VAT increases it’s the Mandy book serialisation in the Times...
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What will the Milibands do about Gordon?
Should they back him for International Development Secretary? According to Guido Gordon Brown is taking soundings about making a return to the Labour front bench as Shadow International Development...
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Will the MiliD-MiliE outcome be a verdict on NuLab?
…are these headlines helpful to the younger brother? With voting in Labour’s election due to start on Wednesday two papers at the “quality” end of the market have front pages that are dominated by the...
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How long will the TB-GB psycho-drama plague Labour?
Daily Mail Is everything still being defined by the ex-leaders ? The big news for Labour as we move into September should be the start of voting in the first contested election for a leader since...
View ArticleWhat if 458 Tory voters in these seats had acted differently?
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So are you backing Gordon….?
DSK has now resigned as IMF head, and Hills have released their next IMF leader prices which are: Kemal Dervis, Turkey 5/2 Montek Singh Ahluwalia, India 5/1 Axel Weber, Germany 7/1 Tharman...
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Are we seeing the resurrection of Mr. Brown?
Is he blamed unfairly for Labour’s defeat? There’s a new book out by some of the main figures associated with Ipsos-MORI, Robert Worcester, Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines and Mark Gill, which seeks to...
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But what does this mean for today’s politics?
Will it have interest beyond political anoraks? Just looking at tomorrow Telegraph splash and reading the some of the documents from Brown camp that have been leaked I’m trying to work out what...
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Is all this about stopping Balls from over-throwing Miliband?
SkyNews What’s behind the “Brown plot” revelations? Those who’ve read the accounts of the Brown-Blair wars, particularly those by Andrew Rawnsley and Anthony Seldon, won’t find much to surprise them...
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Stand by for “Explosive revelations” from Alastair Darling
Is this going to make Miliband’s task much harder? According to Atul Hatwal of Labour Uncut there are about to be some explosive revelations in Alastair Darling’s upcoming memoir:- He writes:...
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Cameron’s MORI ratings now worse than Gordon Brown’s
Both the PM and Nick Clegg see 8 points drops Another poll, MORI, has EdM beating DC in leader ratings.Ed’s net rating is -16/Dave’s is -28/Clegg’s is -39 bit.ly/JXzzkh — Mike Smithson...
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Why did 308 LAB MPs ever give this man a coronation?
A reminder from five years ago Today’s appearance before the Leveson inquiry by Gordon Brown is a reminder of what to me was the most appalling mistake in modern politics – the decision by 308 Labour...
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On the 5th Anniversary of Blair’s exit from No. 10……
Would Labour still be in power if they’d stuck with Tony? Exactly five years ago today, June 27th 2007, was a pivotal point in British politics. It was the moment when the triple general election...
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Five years on from the election that never was
Today, is the fifth anniversary of Gordon Brown’s decision not to hold an election in the autumn of 2007. It was a very interesting time for anyone interested in politics or betting. We had a Labour...
View ArticleIt is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave...
Henry G Manson disputes Blair’s assertion that he’d have done better than Brown @ GE2010.bit.ly/16Boguz twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Henry G Manson with a...
View ArticleDave would not have become PM if he’d held out for a minority Conservative...
May 7 2010: Cameron making his offer to the LDs On Friday I took part in a conference panel with Paul Staines and the respected city analyst, David Buik. He made a statement which we’ve heard before...
View Article3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as...
Leading on the economy isn't everything. See this from final Ipsos-MORI poll of marginals at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/W0n5k6yMyy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 @ScotMac3 The same final...
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Let’s kill this myth once again. Cameron never had the chance of a minority...
May 11 2010 The Tories hadn’t won & there was need for Brown to step aside I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed to win a...
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The big problem with free TV licences for those 75+ is that a staggering one...
Gordon Brown’s 2001 exemption rule has a huge loophole which should never have been agreed From 1980-84 a big part my then job at the BBC was to deal with the PR and political issues relating to the...
View ArticleRemember the Saturday when the Telegraph and Sky News both declared that Alan...
With AV LAB elections don’t always go to plan Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another...
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Donald Brind says: “Thanks Neil – now we need to hear from Gordon”
Brown is well-placed to deal with the Corbyn surge Shortly after Tony Blair was elected Labour leader in 1994 I bumped into my political hero Jack Jones at a book launch. What inspired me about Jones...
View ArticleAlmost all of LAB’s current problems stem from eight years ago today when...
The day an autumn 2007 vote was bottled Eight years today an event took place from which, I’d argue, all Labour’s trouble stem – the decision by the then PM to call off what were very advanced plans...
View ArticleMrs. May’s new PM ratings honeymoon is bigger than Thatcher’s, Cameron’s or...
Putting the current ratings numbers into a historical context With a lot of the non-LAB leadership politics discussion being on May’s polling honeymoon I thought I’d look back at the old MORI ratings...
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Electing a leader from Scotland could give the LDs a huge boost north of the...
If Gordon Brown could do it at GE10 then what about the Yellows? We all know that GE10 wasn’t a good one for Gordon Brown’s LAB. The party lost power after having a comfortable majority for 13 years...
View ArticleLAB’s most successful election winner the latest to question why Corbyn’s...
Tony Blair: 'Labour should be 20 points ahead in polls' https://t.co/DS8q4dkCM6 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 11, 2017 The record suggests that when LAB’s ahead the Tories are being...
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Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI...
The Blair-Major MORI satisfaction ratings before GE1997 The Cameron-Brown Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings before GE2010 Current Corbyn-May Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings My thanks to James Bowley for...
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